Paul's Internet Landfill/ 2025/ Against Forester And Also Zealots

Against Forester and Also Zealots

So the Not Just Bikes guy recently dropped a scathing critique of some guy named John Forester, who strongly advocated for something called vehicular cycling. According to the Not Just Bikes guy, the philosophy of vehicular cycling is that cyclists should ride in traffic, and that bike infrastructure (bike lanes, etc) do more harm than good. Since Forester was influential in North American planning circles, and since modern North American traffic engineering is carbrained and largely unsafe for cyclists, the Not Just Bikes guy concludes that cycling in North America is unsafe because of John Forester.

For some reason (namely, he is persuasive and funny) the Not Just Bikes guy is very influential in urbanist discourse, and since some of my own beliefs about safe cycling echo those of Forester, I shall forever have to defend myself against accusations that I am Forester-brained.

I had never heard of vehicular cycling before this video, and I had never directly been exposed to either of its magnum opuses: Effective Cycling or his urban planning manual Bicycle Transportation. Perhaps some of his views infected me through the noosphere, but I feel I have come to many of my opinions about safe cycling through hard-earned personal experience. Many of the scathing critiques I have about local cycling advocacy organizations come from personal experiences trying to use the "segregated cycling infrastructure" the advocacy groups demand ceaselessly. There is some overlap between the conclusions I have reached and those that Forester apparently held, but there are also vast differences.

I am writing this entry as if you had watched the Not Just Bikes takedown, but given that the video is over an hour and a half long, I don't blame anyone for skipping it. My hope is that it will be self-contained enough that it will make my positions clear even to those who have enough self-respect to refrain from watching the video.

I have expressed many of these arguments before; see the bike-lanes tag for other screeds.

  1. Against Forester and Also Zealots
    1. Principles I Hold
    2. Comparisons to Forester
    3. Comparisons to Not Just Bikes/Urbanist Zealots
    4. Build It And They Will Come
    5. CapEx and OpEx
    6. Safety vs Perceived Safety
    7. Electric Transportation and Bike Lanes
    8. Conclusions
  2. Sidebar!

Principles I Hold

Here are a bunch of disclaimers: Just like the Not Just Bikes guy and John Forester, I am a grumpy old man with strong opinions about cycling. Like those two, I am not an urban planner and (like, it seems, Forester) many of these opinions are shaped through personal experience and anecdote. My primary forms of transportation are bicycling and walking, and I also use my bicycle for exercise and recreation. Having said that, I am not a "cyclist". Maybe I would qualify as a MAMIL (Middle-aged man in Lycra) if I wore lycra, but I think that my approach towards cycling differs a fair amount from people we think of as "road cyclists".

Having said all that, here are the broad strokes of my cycling philosophy:

There are some nuances in these views. I will elaborate on some of them below.

Comparisons to Forester

Based on the Not Just Bikes video, I can see some strong disagreements I hold with his views (again, as filtered by the Not Just Bikes guy):

I think I do agree with Forester on some things:

Comparisons to Not Just Bikes/Urbanist Zealots

The urbanist zealots (think TriTAG, CycleWR) are very loud voices in the region. They advocate for Dutch-style cycling infrastructure everywhere, and get real mad at city/regional staff when they don't cater to those demands. I am probably more on their side than against, but some of the positions they hold get me real mad:

Having said that, I do agree with the zealots in their basic goals. Both they and I want safe biking routes throughout the region. Some of them even advocate for year-round cycling facilities.

Build It And They Will Come

As mentioned above I disagree with the bike zealots that if you just build enough segregated bike infrastructure then everybody will bike.

CapEx and OpEx

My biggest complaints about segregated bike infrastructure have to do with safety and maintenance. These are related, but not identical. I will discuss safety more below, but I want to reiterate my complaints about bike infrastructure maintenance.

I am no financier (New York or otherwise) but I know enough about projects to know that there is something called "capital expense" (CapEx) vs "operational expense" (OpEx). In terms of bike infrastructure, capital expenses take the form of "building the thing", and operational expense take the form of "maintaining the thing".

In my experience the cities and Region seem to have money to build things, but don't have money to properly maintain them. This is one of the main reasons I advocate so strongly for painted bike lanes: they are fairly cheap (although not free) to build, and fairly cheap (although not free) to maintain. Maybe in the Netherlands the government is willing to pay for good bike infrastructure; all too often North Americans get halfway measures that are terrible (hello Albert Street!)

What does "maintenance" of bike infrastructure mean? It largely means keeping the asphalt in good condition, keeping the paint visible, keeping the infrastructure lit, and keeping the infrastructure clear of hazardous debris. It is this last point where cities and the Region do such a terrible job, especially in the winter.

It is possible and not that difficult to keep painted bike lanes free of debris: you clear the bike lanes at the same time you clear the road. This is not perfect (see below) but it should not be that hard to do. Sadly, there are many places (hello Kitchener!) where this seems an impossible task: snowplows will clear the road right up to the bike lane paint, and no further. Then winter cyclists are faced with the choice of cycling in the snow (and ice) or taking the road and cycling in traffic. Neither of these options is good. Having said this, there are other roads (hello Bleams Road in Wilmot) where somehow the Region/Township manages to clear the roads properly. It is still my contention that it should be possible to keep these lanes clear fairly cheaply, even if the municipalities fail to do so: they don't need any special trucks.

Compare this to segregated infrastructure. One problem is that there are so many different kinds of infrastructure. Some places have multi-use trails. Some places (hello University Ave) have narrow on-street lanes with concrete curbs. Some places (hello Ottawa Street) have concrete "cycleways" -- sidewalks that are neither level with the road nor level with the pedestrian sidewalk. These all require specialized trucks to clean, so they don't get cleaned well and sometimes do not get cleaned at all. Witness the horrendous results on University Ave.

This is especially important because there is an inconvenient truth when it comes to winter: cycling infrastructure has to be cleaned to a higher standard than the corresponding automobile road. This is for two reasons: firstly there are no heavy vehicles to heat up the path and melt whatever snow and ice the snowplows have missed. Secondly, if there is a small patch of ice on a road then most four-wheeled automobiles will be able to traverse it without dire consequences, but even a small patch of ice in a cycling path is treacherous to a two-wheeled bicycle. So much of the supposedly safe cycling infrastructure (hello downtown Kitchener) suffers from this: the paths are cleared to some extent, but there is lots of snow and ice left behind.

This is even worse when driveways are involved. Maybe the cute bike path snowplows clear the bike lanes adequately after it first snows, but then people clear their driveways and shovel snow right onto the cycle path, where it freezes into ice. I can't tell you the number of scary experiences I have had when encountering this.

That means that it can be pretty expensive to keep bike infrastructure clear in the winter. And since "nobody bikes in the winter" there is lots of pressure to drop this expense. If there are no alternatives to taking the segregated infrastructure (hello Ottawa St west of Fischer-Hallman, where the car lanes are too narrow to cycle safely) then getting around becomes a real challenge.

Winter maintenance is really important, but there are other operating expenses that get neglected too. One important one is lighting. If you have on-street bike lanes then the same streetlamps that light the road light the bike lane. But there are lots of cute trails that have no night lighting, and some very important trails (namely the Iron Horse) that for years and years got no lighting. Thankfully they fixed the Iron Horse (and as a result it is much safer than it used to be) but this is the kind of expense where municipalities are all too happy to drag their feet.

In this light I have some sympathy for Forester's view that segregated bike infrastructure can be more dangerous than riding on the road. If you neglect to take care of that infrastructure because nobody want to pay for OpEx, then you can generate some pretty dangerous situations no matter how fancy the bike infrastructure is.

Safety vs Perceived Safety

Let's get deeper into the weeds. Picture a 2x2 grid, where one axis is "Actual safety" and one axis is "Perceived safety". In an ideal world these would match -- anything that is actually safe would be perceived as such and vice versa. Unfortunately in my opinion (but not in the opinion of most bike zealots, it seems) this is not the case.

There are going to be a lot of caveats to the examples I provide below, but hopefully they illustrate the broad principles. One big caveat is that different people have different perceptions of what is safe and what is unsafe.

In terms of perceptions it probably makes sense to distinguish between feeling unsafe because of unfamiliarity with a situation, versus feeling unsafe because one perceives an actual hazard. I think it is important to accommodate safety concerns from hazards; I think it is much less important to build out bike infrastructure solely to address safety concerns due to unfamiliarity.

Perceived Safe and Actually Safe

Perceived Safe but Actually Unsafe

This is the killer category.

Perceived Unsafe and Actually Unsafe

Perceived Unsafe but Actually Safe

In some cases "safe" should be interpreted to be "not as unsafe as you think".

Electric Transportation and Bike Lanes

One thing that did not come up much in the Not Just Bikes video is the issue of electric transportation (e-bikes, e-scooters, e-unicycles, etc). Somewhat reluctantly, I feel these are legitimate forms of transportation, and they should be able to get around just as much as those of us who ride manual (or, as the Not Just Bikes guy says, "acoustic") bicycles. However, I find sharing traffic with them irritating, because they are so much faster than I am.

I think this is a strong argument for putting painted bike lanes everywhere, even when there is other segregated bike infrastructure available. As far as I can tell there are now at least four classes of transportation that don't mix:

I do not think any of these classes mix very well. It looks like the Region has settled on multi-use trails with painted lines down the middle for most of their bike infrastructure. I mostly don't hate this. In general pedestrians and manual transportation do not mix well, but at least if you have a painted line pedestrians and cyclists both know what to do. (See? Paint works as bike infrastructure.)

Now add the e-scooters and e-bikes. At 30km/h they are too slow to ride safely with cars. But at 30km/h they are far too fast to be sharing infrastructure with pedestrians (and many cyclists, including me). It seems to me that having them use painted bike lanes is the least worst option. It still is bad for slower cyclists like me, but at least with a painted bike lane the e-scooters and e-cyclists can pass me using the road.

Conclusions

If any bike zealots read this blog (they don't) then I expect I would not convince a single one of them that I am not Forester-brained.

Nonetheless I stand by my principles, and I feel these principles do not align all that closely to those of vehicular cycling.

My principles have shifted over time (for example, I think that the multi-use trails are less disastrous in the suburbs than I had thought, because there are not a lot of driveways along them) but most of them have remained stable for years, which is why I repeat myself over and over again when it comes to this stuff.

I want to say something else: I am not an urban planner, but neither is the Not Just Bikes guy. He is an old grumpy techbro who used to work for tech companies before he got Youtube-famous. I am not sure his opinions should hold so much sway over urbanist discourse, but that's what has happened. (In fairness to him, I think he admits as much, but that does not stop him from being more influential than actual city planners, because actual city planners are less entertaining.) John Forester was also not an urban planner, and apparently his opinions caused a lot of damage to North American bike infrastructure. Are we so sure the Not Just Bikes guy isn't doing the same? I think the Not Just Bike guy's take on "bike gutters" is wrong. On the other hand, unlike me (and maybe unlike Forester) the Not Just Bikes guy does research into his videos. He and his research team read papers and stuff. Motivated reasoning is still a factor here, but hopefully referring to the research literature is less harmful than spouting uninformed opinions based on personal experience.

Although I hold my opinions strongly, I am fairly confident that these opinions are incorrect, because my opinions are incorrect about everything. Probably the bike zealots are correct about everything and I should shut up.

Unanswered Questions

In writing out this entry I was repeatedly frustrated because I thought I knew facts that I could not back up with web links. There are a lot of unanswered questions I have. The answers to some of these would likely sway my opinions on safe vs unsafe bike infrastructure: